Using Survival Analysis to Understand Graduation of Students With Disabilities

This study examined when students with disabilities graduated high school and how graduation patterns differed for students based on selected demographic and educational factors. Utilizing statewide data on students with disabilities from Massachusetts from 2005 through 2012, the author conducted discrete-time survival analysis to estimate the conditional probability of high school graduation in a given year after high school entry by disability category and placement in the general education setting. Results suggest that, across all disability categories, the peak conditional probability for graduation occurs 4 years after high school entry. In addition, students with disabilities who are fully included have higher graduation probability profiles than students with disabilities who are educated in substantially-separate settings.